The problem TruthMarket solves

The Problem It Solves

Prediction markets like Polymarket are powerful because they turn public belief into a live price. But they still have one major weakness: someone has to decide what actually happened.

That works for simple outcomes. But many of the most interesting markets are messy, subjective, probabilistic, or hard to verify:

• Did this DAO proposal achieve its stated goal?
• Was this AI agent’s decision correct?
• Did this creator actually hit the promised milestone?
• Was this prediction resolved fairly?
• Did the event happen according to the rules?

Today, these outcomes often depend on a centralized resolver, moderator, oracle, admin, or social consensus. That creates disputes, bias, pressure, and unclear resolutions.

TruthMarket is a prediction market where the truth is resolved by the market itself.

Every market starts with a locked claim and rules document, so everyone knows exactly what YES and NO mean before they stake. Voters commit their votes privately, so nobody can copy, influence, or pressure the outcome during the voting period. When voting closes, a randomly selected jury of staked participants reveals their votes and resolves the market.

This creates a fairer way to settle non-obvious outcomes. Instead of relying on one platform, one oracle, or one powerful moderator, TruthMarket lets communities resolve claims through staked, private, randomly selected judgment.

TruthMarket can be used for DAO decisions, public predictions, creator promises, AI agent actions, community bets, impact claims, and any outcome that is too subjective, probabilistic, or non-verifiable for a normal oracle.

Polymarket shows what people believe. TruthMarket helps decide what is true.

Challenges we ran into

The Core Design Challenge

Polymarket is great when the answer is obvious later.

But what about questions like:

• Was this AI demo real progress or just hype?
• Did a DAO actually deliver what it promised?
• Is this prediction still credible?
• Was a claim misleading, even if not technically false?

These are valuable markets, but they are hard to resolve.

Our biggest hurdle was making those markets feel fair without handing the final decision to one admin.

We solved it with a random staked jury:

Stake shows conviction. Random jurors decide the outcome.

Votes stay private with commit-reveal, rules are locked before anyone stakes, and the final result comes from selected jurors instead of a centralized moderator.

That turned TruthMarket into something simple:

Polymarket for questions too messy for a normal oracle.