Seer

Seer

Seer provides market based estimates of the likelihood of any kind of event. By having information seekers subsidize markets, it provides a fun and positive sum game for market participants.

Created on 18th September 2022

Seer

Seer

Seer provides market based estimates of the likelihood of any kind of event. By having information seekers subsidize markets, it provides a fun and positive sum game for market participants.

The problem Seer solves

Seer can help facilitate informed decision-making in the presence of uncertainty which can be beneficial to various stakeholders (decision makers) by providing market based probabilistic estimates of events such as health emergencies/outbreaks or geopolitical events.
Seer solves the problems which have previously prevented the success of prediction markets:

  • Overregulation: Non cyrpto prediction markets have suffered from harsh regulations assimilating those to betting. They imposed extremely harsh limitations to the range of markets and the amount participants can trade. Despite that, they shut down the largest prediction market PreditIt last month.
    • By using crypto and being fully decentralized, participants trade between each other without any third party which could be regulated or shut down.
  • Absence of liquidity and traders: Prediction markets generally suffer from poor liquidity and trading volume. It is a chicken and the egg problem: Without large liquidity, serious traders are not interested and without trading volume, it is not profitable to be a liquidity provider.
    • By having information seekers subsidize liquidity providers, we solve the chicken and the egg problem. Initially the project itself will act as an information seeker. In order to be sustainable, the project DAO will reach out to entities wishing to predict events to propose them to be information seekers.
  • Negative sum games: In traditional prediction markets, the winnings of some participants come from the loss of others, if we had the fees and time spent, it makes it a negative sum game.
    • By adding information seeker subsidies, we make providing liquidity more attractive. Liquidity providers may lose a bit on impermanent loss but should get more in subsidies. Traders overall should earn more than they spend as they will earn from liquidity provider losses. Information seekers are paying but get information which is more valuable than what their subsidies cost.

Challenges I ran into

As the project is pretty complex, we tried to reuse crypto primitives created by other projects.
We ended up developing a fully working (Market Creation, Liquidity Subsidies and Trading) and decentralized (no admin keys) Proof Of Concept without writing any code.
Note that it doesn’t mean that there were no technical challenges, we spent a lot of time reading documents and when those were not sufficient smart contracts to determine the appropriate smart contract calls to make for what couldn’t be done through an user interface.

We also ended up losing 100 Yes-DAI (to the question “Will Russia launch a military operation in Moldova in 2022”) due to a bug in the Conditional Token Explorer interface which sent tokens to an address which wasn’t deployed on Ethereum mainnet (thus burning those tokens) but only deployed on Gnosis Chain.
Let’s hope Putin doesn’t wake up with the thought of attacking more countries!
We managed to bypass it by interacting with the smart contract directly through MEW.

We also got some frontend issues while providing subsidies to liquidity providing on Swapr No-DAI / ETH pair.
We managed to solve this by using the Swapr functionality of providing rewards for individual tokens instead of liquidity pools (we just picked the liquidity pool as the individual token to incentivize).

Discussion

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