ImpactMarkets
Prediction Markets for Creators
Created on 7th November 2025
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ImpactMarkets
Prediction Markets for Creators
The problem ImpactMarkets solves
The Problem It Solves
The Public Goods Funding Crisis
Public goods creators, educators, open-source developers, researchers, face unsustainable funding:
Gitcoin Grants run quarterly,
Octant donations happen once per epoch,
One-time grants provide no recurring income
All models rely on pure altruism, which has its drawbacks.
Creators are often stuck fundraising instead of building.
How ImpactMarkets Solves This
- Replaces Donation with Speculation
Instead of passive donations, users bet on creator success:
Believe Alice will deliver? Buy YES tokens
Skeptical? Buy NO tokens
Creators get funded from trading activity regardless of outcome
Polymarket has show how well speculation scales, perhaps better than altruism.
2. Dual Revenue Streams for Creators
Immediate: 60% of all trading fees → creators
Recurring: Weekly yield allocation (if market confidence >70%)
A creator with $50K monthly volume + 80% confidence earns ~$700/month sustainable income.
3. Self-Sustaining Liquidity
Traditional prediction markets need constant capital injection. ImpactMarkets is different:
Users stake GLM in Octant → Earn ETH yield
50% of yield auto-routes to market liquidity
Liquidity grows automatically, no fundraising needed
This is the first prediction market with yield-driven liquidity.
4. Market-Driven Quality Signals
Markets act as credibility filters:
High confidence (>70%) = Weekly yield funding
Low confidence = Only trading fees, no yield bonus
Community belief determines sustainable funding
Who Benefits
Creators: Sustainable recurring income, no grant treadmill
Stakers: Higher engagement + 40% trading fee rebates
Traders: Profit from correct predictions while funding public goods
Ecosystem: Scalable, transparent, market-driven funding allocation
Real Use Cases
Octant Grant Recipients
Open Source Maintainers
Educators
Researchers
Why This Works
Old model: (relies on altruism)
ImpactMarkets: "Bet on success" (adds profit motive)
When Alice delivers, YES holders profit. When Bob fails, NO holders profit. Either way, creators earn from the activity.
Funding becomes engaging, not exhausting.
Impact at Scale
Built for: Octant creators, public goods builders, Ethereum educators
Integrated with: Octant V2 (yield routing)
Deployed: Sepolia testnet, fully functional
This is prediction markets for good.
Challenges I ran into
1. Yield Routing Complexity
Problem: Calculating which creators qualify for weekly yield (>70% confidence threshold) while weighing by volume required complex on-chain math with logarithms.
Solution: Used Solady's FixedPointMathLib for gas-efficient logarithmic calculations. Implemented weighted distribution: (price - 0.7) × ln(volume + 1) to prevent whale manipulation while rewarding high-confidence creators.
2. Market Resolution State Management
Problem: After resolving markets on-chain, the frontend wouldn't reflect the resolved state. Trading interface stayed active even after resolution.
Solution: Added explicit isResolved and yesWon state reads from contracts. Conditionally rendered UI based on market state - showing redemption interface for resolved markets, trading interface for active ones.
3. Liquidity Cold Start Problem
Problem: Yield-based liquidity takes time to accumulate, but markets need immediate liquidity for trading on day one.
Solution: Hybrid approach - manual seeding via AddLiquidity.s.sol for bootstrap, then yield-driven liquidity for sustainability.
Tracks Applied (3)
Best use of a Yield Donating Strategy
Most creative use of Octant v2 for public goods
Best public goods projects
Technologies used
Cheer Project
Cheering for a project means supporting a project you like with as little as 0.0025 ETH. Right now, you can Cheer using ETH on Arbitrum, Optimism and Base.