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GitGuild

GitGuild

Prediction Markets on Github PRs

Created on 21st September 2025

GitGuild

GitGuild

Prediction Markets on Github PRs

The problem GitGuild solves

1. Smart Contract Economics

  • Challenge: Designing sustainable bonding curve tokenomics
  • Solution: Linear price increases with multi-tiered fee distribution
  • Learning: Batch operations significantly reduce gas costs

2. GitHub API Rate Limits

  • Challenge: 5,000 requests/hour limit for real-time PR data
  • Solution: Intelligent caching with exponential backoff
  • Learning: Aggressive caching essential for production

3. Web3 UX Complexity

  • Challenge: Making blockchain accessible to traditional developers
  • Solution: Progressive disclosure of Web3 complexity with clear error messages
  • Learning: Fallback mechanisms crucial for adoption

Challenges we ran into

Open source development lacks market signals for PR quality and merge probability.

Current Pain Points

  • Contributors: Waste time on PRs unlikely to merge, no feedback on quality
  • Maintainers: Can't prioritize valuable PRs, overwhelmed by review queue
  • Ecosystem: No economic incentives, uneven code quality

BlockSmiths Solution

  • 📊 Market Predictions: Real-time probability scores for PR outcomes
  • 💰 Economic Incentives: Reward accurate predictions and quality contributions
  • ⚡ Priority Signals: Help maintainers focus on high-value PRs first

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Discussion

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