Baba Vanga = Prediction Market + Twitter (Social)
# Baba Vanga: AI-powered prediction market AI that trades on PolyMarket, analyzes news, and Tweets about.
Created on 11th February 2025
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Baba Vanga = Prediction Market + Twitter (Social)
# Baba Vanga: AI-powered prediction market AI that trades on PolyMarket, analyzes news, and Tweets about.
The problem Baba Vanga = Prediction Market + Twitter (Social) solves
Baba Vanga addresses some challenges in prediction markets and automated trading:
-For Traders & Investors
Information Overload & Emotional Trading: Automatically processes and analyzes larges amounts of news and market data that would be impossible to track manually + Eliminates emotional bias from trading decisions (At least for/from the normal user capabilities)
24/7 Market Presence: Operates continuously without human intervention, never missing trading opportunities again
-For Market Participants
Market Transparency: Shares its analysis and reasoning publicly on Twitter, contributing to transparency.
Track Record Verification: All predictions and trades are recorded on the blockchain (also inside PolyMarket), allowing for complete verification and accountability
-Technical Innovation
Automated Decision Making: Combines AI, blockchain, and social media in a unique way to create a fully autonomous trading AI.
Market Intelligence: Creates a public record of market analysis and predictions that can be used for research and strategy development
-Social Impact
Democratizng Trading: Makes sophisticated trading strategies and market analysis accessible to everyone through public Twitter updates
Educational Value: Helps people understand the relationship between news events and market movements
Community Building: Creates a community of informed traders who can learn from and discuss the bot's predictions and analysis
Challenges I ran into
The most significant challenge was integrating with PolyMarket's smart contracts. This required developing a robust system for:
Transaction state verification
Gas fee optimization
Failed transaction handling
Bet validation mechanisms
The solution involved implementing an intelligent retry system with exponential backoff and comprehensive error handling:
async def verify_transaction(tx_hash):
max_attempts = 5
for attempt in range(max_attempts):
try:
receipt = await w3.eth.get_transaction_receipt(tx_hash)
return receipt.status == 1
except Exception:
await asyncio.sleep(exponential_backoff(attempt))
Also the system coordination was not easy...
Orchestrating multiple services (news analysis, AI decision-making, blockchain operations, and Twitter updates) presented unique challenges.
I implemented:
Asynchronous queue system for operation management
State tracking for complex operations
Failover mechanisms for each component
Comprehensive logging system
Tracks Applied (8)